Ogunyemi Warns of Northern States' Collapse if Subsidy Returns

Professor Tunji Ogunyemi from Obafemi Awolowo University (OAU) warned during an interview on Open Forum 360 that restoring petrol subsidy, as proposed by African Democratic Congress presidential candidate Atiku Abubakar for the 2027 elections, could result in the collapse of about 15 northern states within three months. Ogunyemi explained that reinstating the subsidy would reduce funds available through the Federation Account, which is crucial for most states' operations.

He noted that only four states, including Lagos, Delta, and Rivers, could survive without heavy reliance on federal allocations, while Taraba exemplifies a state dependent on the Federation Account. He stated that a revenue squeeze would hinder state governments' ability to pay salaries and pensions and would also impact the federal government's capacity to fund recurrent and capital expenditures.

Ogunyemi expressed concern that declining revenues could jeopardize Nigeria's ability to service its debts and questioned Atiku's motivations for proposing the subsidy restoration.