UN Warns of Record Global Temperatures by 2031

The United Nations has issued a warning that global temperatures are projected to hit new records by 2031, with a 75% chance that the five-year mean from 2026 to 2030 will surpass the critical threshold of 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels (1850-1900 average). The World Meteorological Organization (WMO) predicts an 86% chance that at least one year within this period will exceed the warmest year on record, which is currently 2024.

The phenomenon of El Niño is anticipated to increase the likelihood of record-breaking temperatures, contributing to 2023 being the second hottest year recorded. The WMO's report indicates that the annual global mean near-surface temperature during 2026-2030 is expected to range from 1.3°C to 1.9°C above the pre-industrial average.

Furthermore, there is a 91% chance that global average temperatures will temporarily exceed 1.5°C at least once during this period. The report also discusses expected precipitation patterns and temperature anomalies across various regions, including the Arctic and Sahel.