Tinubu leads 2027 race with 20-state projection, Atiku second with 9

According to research conducted by the Political Intelligence Group, a body affiliated with Politico.ng, President Bola Ahmed Tinubu is projected to triumph in 20 states should the election proceed under today's political conditions. The incumbent leads former Vice President Atiku Abubakar, who is forecast to gain nine states, as well as Labour Party's Peter Obi, expected to secure eight states plus the Federal Capital Territory.

On September 1, 2026, the Political Intelligence Group examined how voter support distributes among the three leading contenders within the current political framework. Tinubu's projected triumphs are centered in the South-West, where his historical strength remains evident, though the forecast also encompasses critical northern territories including Kano.

Atiku demonstrates expected staying power in particular regions, while Obi's projected base consists of eight states and FCT representation. The Political Intelligence Group emphasized that such projections carry temporal limitations—alterations in Nigeria's political environment between now and actual 2027 voting could be dramatic.

The analysis does not constitute definitive forecasting, as political formations and electoral preferences remain capable of shifting during campaign phases and as conditions evolve. This represents merely an early analytical snapshot regarding the 2027 presidential race.

Major Nigerian media outlets—Naija News, Legit.ng, and Nigerian Tribune among them—all reported these same figures drawn from this single research entity, showing alignment in data sources and reported findings across different news organizations.