Global Trade Faces Complications Amid Rising Tensions

The landscape of global trade is evolving, becoming more complicated due to various factors such as tariffs, geopolitical tensions, sanctions, and supply-chain disruptions. In 2025, the World Trade Organization reported a 4.6% increase in global merchandise trade volume, driven by demand for artificial-intelligence-related goods.

However, the UN Trade and Development (UNCTAD) warned that trade growth could slow in 2026 due to persistent trade tensions and rising costs. A significant example is the U.S.-Canada dispute, where Canada imposed retaliatory tariffs on approximately $20 billion worth of U.S. goods on September 8, affecting products like steel and electronics.

Geopolitical issues, including the war in Ukraine and tensions between the U.S. and China, are increasingly influencing trade decisions. The African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA), which began trading in January 2021, aims to enhance intra-African trade and create a larger market, potentially providing opportunities amid the changing trade environment.