Moody's upgrades Nigeria outlook to positive, maintains B3 rating

Moody's Ratings has upgraded Nigeria's sovereign credit outlook to positive from stable, recognizing strengthened foreign exchange reserves and economic performance that exceed earlier projections. The agency simultaneously kept Nigeria's long-term foreign-currency credit rating at B3, a classification that reflects ongoing constraints from limited domestic revenue and difficulties in managing debt costs.

The shift signals confidence in Nigeria's capacity to weather external economic shocks, driven by an improved current account balance and higher reserve levels. However, the unchanged B3 rating underscores that structural fiscal challenges persist, particularly around the government's ability to generate sufficient tax revenue and service its debt load.

Finance Minister Taiwo Oyedele characterized the outlook revision as external affirmation of the administration's economic restructuring programme under President Bola Tinubu. Oyedele pointed to specific policy actions—including the removal of fuel price controls and currency realignment—as drivers of the improved macroeconomic conditions Moody's cited in its assessment.

Moody's assessment reflects a separation between Nigeria's near-term external position and its underlying fiscal structure. The positive outlook suggests the agency expects improved stability over the coming 12 to 18 months, yet the maintained B3 rating signals that debt affordability and revenue mobilisation remain areas requiring sustained attention.