Tinubu Leads 2027 Election Projections with 20 States

The Political Intelligence Group (PIG) of Politico.ng has released an early projection for the 2027 presidential election, forecasting that President Bola Ahmed Tinubu will win 20 states if the election were held under current conditions. Former Vice President Atiku Abubakar is projected to secure 9 states, while Labour Party candidate Peter Obi is expected to win 8 states and the Federal Capital Territory.

The forecast indicates Tinubu's stronghold in all six South-West states, particularly in Lagos, and includes Kano, a populous state, suggesting support beyond his traditional base. Atiku's strengths are concentrated in the North-West and North-East, with Kaduna among the states expected to favor him.

Obi's projected states reflect his support from younger voters and southern states, including Edo. PIG noted that political alliances, candidate choices, and regional factors could influence these projections before the election, emphasizing the importance of addressing security, food prices, and unemployment.